Comments on: A good bet?

By: zoe

zoe — Thu, 28 Jul 2005 09:50:29 +0000

I really hate polls close to an election. Not that we are yet, but within a week or so of the election I don’t think there should be any polling. It/ the media tries whip people into this paranoid frenzy and all the uncertains become even more uncertain about who to vote for. I think it influences the outcome. I’d be interested to hear what anyone else thinks of that

But at least we don’t have a time difference over the country & broadcast some results before others have even voted yet however so that’s something.

By: icehawk

icehawk — Wed, 27 Jul 2005 21:08:52 +0000

I raised over to look at Centrebet after seeing this, sensing easy money.

Unfortunately, while it will letme bet for Rodney Hide becoming PM, I appear to be unable to bet _against_ Rodney Hide being prime minister at any odds.

I don’t gamble. But that wouldn’t have been gambling.

By: peterquixote

peterquixote — Wed, 27 Jul 2005 20:16:19 +0000

does this suggest idiot old chap that right wingers have more money than left winger ? wouldn’t it be better then to use the savant part of brain and become wealthy by becoming ACT party supporter, you get rich
savy? now Savo a 5% difference in the moneu big difference, follow the money Sav get sav,
now savant, chipper he only got a few more years to go before he realises realise that socialism dead, and then he stop pay so many tax to fascists beficiaries,and well fwwog, I don’t know, he gots the religion bads and he follow preacher rod, not so hopeful for him but we do try to help him,

By: tselwyn

tselwyn — Wed, 27 Jul 2005 01:53:57 +0000

I have set up my own book here and have Labour a tad in front of National on a head-to-head basis. (just one of the options available). Anyone wanting to make their call is encouraged to do so. I have followed centrebet on this issue and will add to I/S that it is the market which determines the rates as much as the bookies setting high to attract punters. The market consists of wild-eyed and well-heeled optimists sure of their convictions. At this point that would be Nats.

By: idiot/savant

idiot/savant — Tue, 26 Jul 2005 23:20:39 +0000

Crooked Timber has had a couple of interesting posts on betting markets, and their conclusion is that the only reason they could be considered a better source of information is if they allow insider trading. Where inside knowledge is impossible (or at least highly unlikely - as in a free and fair election), then they simply accumulate the daily newspaper headlines, hashed through the prejudices of the people (usually right-wing loons) who play on them. In other words: treat with a large pinch of salt.