A momentum shift
John Armstrong’s column in the Herald this morning brings home that the political landscape has changed markedly in the last few days. He writes of Labour’s student loan p0licy:
Labour has made a king hit. It has clinically killed off National’s far less generous offer of a tax rebate on interest payments, and it is bound to get a spin-off in the next round of polls, giving it a springboard into the formal four-week campaign.
The loan pledge does not have the benefit of the universality of tax cuts. But the political beauty of the policy resides in it helping a lot of people to a major extent. The jam is spread thickly - tax cuts spread it more thinly.
Graduates’ savings will be measured in thousands of dollars - savings, which Helen Clark noted, could go towards a deposit on a first home…
Needing to come up with what one Labour insider described as a “stunner”, the Beehive kept the pledge under tight wraps and away from the wider Labour Party’s policy channels for fear it would leak out in advance.
So Tuesday’s announcement had the vital element of surprise. Moreover, it fulfilled Clark’s maxim that it is always better to under-promise and over-deliver.
So, the Labour comeback that those hoping for a Labour/Green government have been willing has happened much more quickly than we could have imagined. Momentum is everything in politics. It’s now clear that momentum is, for now, definitely with Labour. Back to you, Don.
July 30th, 2005 at 7:11 pm
thanks fwwog, Don got the ball, i think he accept that it hard to outbid in a lolly scramble, but that politic i suppose, this is of course simple REDISTRIBUTION OF TAX TO RETAIN POWER, and fairly shocking even for fascists, the more it is analysed the more it seal Helengrads reputation,
already the people saying they sick of it, wish we could just do some environmental stuff that would help the whole country, not just a selection, thats why ACT says tax cuts, it cross all the way to the lowly tradesman, worker,
July 31st, 2005 at 3:02 am
I am, of course, very pleased with Labour’s announcement re: student loans. Something needed to be done to help students and this seems pragmatic on several scores. Offering relief, encouraging young people to consider staying home to work, giving young people the incentive to enroll and vote, just to mention a few obvious points.
Tax cuts for EVERYONE was always going to be spread too thinly, or risk life threatening surgery to core state services.
Now Labour still needs to address the oft mentioned tax glitch for that particular income range, such as BJ and others have outlined. Joy.
July 31st, 2005 at 8:21 am
pq
Tax cuts don’t make sense if the country is in debt. If Labour wants to make points with me however, it needs to yank hard on the leashes of its big spenders “awww, a little waste doesn’t matter” people, choke them down hard and pay off some of the debt with the money instead of throwing parties. Discipline in the ranks. Labour is not very good at that. (Greens are even worse
)
I’d also note that the redistribution hits home in the incomes where labour’s taxes hit the hardest. It is pretty clever in its way, but it has a devil of an implementation issue attached.
respectfully
BJ
July 31st, 2005 at 9:10 am
BJ,
If by “big spenders” in govt services you are referring to”team bonding parties” (surely passe by now), golden hand shakes when a CEO or similar is moving on after questionable performance, (Nats were very good at this one last time round), or handing out funding without tight governance controls, then yes, I would be in agreement with you. Joy.
July 31st, 2005 at 9:28 am
Labour is gaining yes, but quite a bit at expense of the Greens. Be careful how loudly you cheerlead!
July 31st, 2005 at 9:57 am
David: Well, quite
However, the only chance the Greens have of influencing the next government is if Labour makes a good fist of the campaign. If Labour’s vote collapses, then it would be little consolation for the Greens to get a good party vote. Also, my sense is that Labour-leaning voters will be more inclined to “go Green” if Labour has a clear lead over National. If the race is really close, such voters will decide to stay with Labour for fear of National getting a plurality of the party votes and being framed by the media as the winner of the election.
Also, I’m not sure that Labour is getting lots of votes from the Greens (though, clearly the student loan policy will appeal to many young Kiwis who might otherwise vote Green) - our average in the polls (the Herald one was an anomoly and I suspect that even they know that their methodology needs fixing) is around 6%, which is a great springing board for the campaign, and about where it has been for the last few months.