Another support party bites the dust
So, National only has one prospective coalition partner left: United. At face value, National started the campaign with four options, but three of them are no longer options:
- Maori Party: It has ruled out supporting a National-led Government because of Don Brash’s divisive and assimilationist race policies.
- NZ First: It will not sign up to National’s “bottom line” of scrapping the Maori seats without a referendum, and it believes National’s tax cut package is unaffordable and inflationary.
- Act: It will not make it back into Parliament.
This leaves United. So, the National/United combination has about 39% support at the moment, compared to around 50% for the Labour/Green/Progressive combination. National is looking very lonely indeed right now. As for projecting the makeup of Parliament on current polling, National/United have 48 seats and Labour/Green/Progressive have 61. So, a huge gap. Don’t be deceived by the small gap between Labour and National in the opinion polls. The true gap to look for is between the two emerging governments. At the moment, the Labour-led side has a huge lead.
Given that the Maori Party has now “picked sides”, I have added its numbers to the left-leaning bloc in my data and charts for the polling average. The new numbers are here. I don’t mean to suggest by this that I believe the Maori Party will be part of a Labour-led Government post-election. I consider this highly unlikely, especially given the Prime Minister’s “last cab off the rank” comment. However, Tariana Turia’s comments today make clear that the Maori Party’s numbers will never be used to support a National Government, so it’s wrong to keep them with the remaining “swingers” United and NZ First.
August 30th, 2005 at 10:48 am
If you go out and book a restaurant now, for September 16th, you can probably celebrate without having to worry about the crowds.
Furthermore, petrol may be too much by then to afford gatherings in any kinds of numbers. I suggest you go out and meet your neighbours. Any luck, they are all Greens or Labour voters and you can share an organic carrot on a picnic blanket.
August 30th, 2005 at 10:57 am
ahh zen..i see you are already preparing yourself for the green future..
‘..sharing an organic carrot on a picnic blanket..’ is surprisingly whimsical..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
August 30th, 2005 at 11:45 am
Reading the “assimilation” post and now this one, it is ever more clear to me that the LPG’s middle of the road is the way to go. Not hard right with National. And for Maori voters to think carefully about how exclusive their policy and position appears to be. Joy.
August 30th, 2005 at 11:54 am
joy like pull youselfs together woman,
this combination would be the most socialist extreme situation for NZ, and our currency house price go bang bang,fall over, chipper buy yous house when price collapse,
and Green, Joy, do yous peoples agree on the maori upper house, that with right of refusal of legislation,
i donts think so,
no fwwog, look yous believing own propa gander
August 30th, 2005 at 12:01 pm
Peter Q.
Chipper may very well want to buy my house in a small country town in a food producing region, if hard right Nats succeed on the 7th. Joy.
August 31st, 2005 at 9:44 am
You wrote:
It will not sign up to National’s “bottom line� of scrapping the Maori seats without a referendum, and it believes National’s tax cut package is unaffordable and inflationary.
I reply:
Well, as I’ve said before you’re a damn fool if you think Winston First can be trusted to have the same “bottom lines” from one week to the next. (Remember when in 1996 he was never, ever going to go into coalition with National?)
And looking at NZFirst’s own policies, I think both John Key and Michael Cullen should treat lectures on fiscal probity from that quarter with the contempt it deserves. Perhaps we should be asking whether Helen Clark and Don Brash will draw some bottom lines of their own - will they adopt NZF’s racist immigration policy, his grossly fiscally irresponsible super policy, immediately drop company tax to 30%?
And I think we all, left and right, should ask Winston to produce independent costing of his promises - because I smell a lot of fudge on Winston’s breath.
As for the Maori Party, I think you’re the commentator who really believed the MP would ever have contemplated any kind of formal deal with National. I think that shows a certain naivety Truia and Sharples were happy to encourage - until it started hitting their poll numbers - but never really believed themselves.