TV3 poll
National has jumped into the lead in tonight’s TV3 poll, with a two-point lead over Labour: 41% plays 39%. The Greens and NZ First are both on 6%. As I suspected it might have been, Molesworth and Featherston’s calling of the election for Labour appears a little premature 
What does this poll tell us? National’s tax and race messages have resonated with some voters, who have moved their allegiances from Labour to National. The race between the major two parties is now, statistically, too close to call. It also tells us that NZ First and the Greens are the only third parties avoiding the minor party squeeze, which looks destined to destroy or severely debilitate United, Act and the Maori Party. It’s been said many times already this election campaign, but I’ll say it again: Game On! This election will go down to the wire.
That said, it must be remarked that Labour has much better coalition options than National. Don Brash’s strategy seems to be to try and govern alone (with confidence and supply from United). For that to work, he’ll need 45% or more of the party vote. It’s a high-risk, high-pay-off strategy. We’ll know in just over two weeks whether it’s worked.
Adding this data to the frogblog average shows the tightening race: Labour’s lead is cut to 3.5 points, from over 5 points a few days ago. Our poll averages still show a Labour/Green Government the most likely. The new data and graphs are here.
August 31st, 2005 at 6:24 pm
You know what Don needs? - a terror attack on nz soil.
That would win him the election.
August 31st, 2005 at 6:59 pm
The problem is, Don is the terror attack. And, it won’t win him the election.
August 31st, 2005 at 7:12 pm
looks fwwogs what a difference a day makes, looks we gots epsom, without even a fscst angry, this is fwwog,
ACT PLUS FIVE SEAT TO RIGHT
be verry afwaid fwwog,
look again look again fwwog,
centre right coming you way soon fwwog,
do yous wnat to do the 7% deal with ACT
we represent you to 7% or results,
August 31st, 2005 at 8:18 pm
you graph dont take trends and swell waves in fwwog,
yous made big come back after, orewa, really we just had little twiggle over bad yous ministers are, but the centre right is the centre right fwwog, and they go no place to go but ACT and give epsom see plus 4% see fwwog, no graph got ACT in, like i said fscsts resigned week ago, now we back on duty, i think we can win fwwog, we ACT take out peter’s done, and jim, and four of yours fwwogs, that look very tricky
water down Maori rule position mebe, I think Maori vote Labour try to save it, tough call, ask parrot she know,
August 31st, 2005 at 8:57 pm
come out fwwog, with you hands i mean paws i mean
leg thingsmn up, we go yous covered, six of thems ACT MP fwwog, we got all yous covered, come on out with you toes up fwwog, and yous propaganda down, the only way forward is the % game for yous, brave new world for NZ to catch up fwwog,
August 31st, 2005 at 9:49 pm
Christ, enough with the baby talk.
August 31st, 2005 at 10:50 pm
Frog:
Ah, yes - the better coalition options… I know this won’t find a receptive audience around here, but I’d happily nominate Tariana and Winston for life memberships in the National Party, because with enemies like that who needs friends.
September 1st, 2005 at 8:17 am
Wasn’t the poll taken before the “race message” was delivered?
September 1st, 2005 at 8:19 am
No. The poll was taken up until Tuesday. So, the Monday sampling and the Tuesday sampling (about a third of the sampling) was taken after “son of Orewa”.
September 1st, 2005 at 9:45 am
Even though he doesn’t make much sense and lots of people seem to be ingnoring him… Peter Q is right.
National havn’t announced that they will stand aside in Epsom but if its going to win them the election then they will.
If act win 3-4 seats, National stay where they are now and get confidence and supply from United Future then they are in…
September 1st, 2005 at 8:07 pm
Ha. OK Peter Coyote, here’s my scenario :
Tight election, National lets the comedy ACT have Epsom. They get 3 MPs. Immediate leadership coup, then one of them is prosecuted for corruption. Continued light entertainment assured for another 3 years.
Nat + ACT + Winsome + Dunny = 59. After an embarassing/entertaining week where Brash tries to sweet talk the Maori party, a minority Labour/Green government is formed, and sees out its term comfortably. Occasionally negotiating with minor parties to pass specific legislation (a rare example of true parliamentary democracy : I think these past 3 years have been exemplary in this respect).