IPCC Fourth Assessment report
So the first part of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report finally came out. The Summary is here, nothing we don’t know:
1. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide levels have increased significantly over pre-industrial levels due to human activities. Carbon dioxide due to fossil fuel burning and land use change, methane and nitrous oxide due to agriculture.
2. The net effect of human activities since 1750 is a global radiative forcing (warming) average of 1.6 Watts per square metre (W/m2). This is made up of:
a) + 2.3 W/m2 due to increase in CO2, CH4, NOx
b) - 0.5 W/m2 due to anthropogenic aerosols
c) - 0.7 W/m2 due to aerosols’ effect on cloud albedo (reflection)
d) + 0.35 W/m2 due to tropospheric ozone formation (from human sourced chemicals)
e) +0.34 W/m2 due to halocarbons
f) - 0.2 W/m2 due to surface albedo changes due to land cover changes
g) + 0.1 W/m2 due to surface albedo changes due to black carbon on snow.
In addition a change in solar irradiance causing +0.12W/m2.
3. There is now massive evidence of warming from around the globe. 0.76C in 100 years and now warming at about 0.13C per decade. Urban heat islands have had effect on measurements but don’t effect overall results. Sea level rise now about 3.1mm per year.
4. Long term climate changes are underway around the world.
5. Projections are for a range of climate changes - fewer and warmer cold nights, more and warmer hot days, incr frequency heat waves, incr heavy precipitation events, incr area affected by drought; incr cyclones, incr sea level rise.
6. The increased temp is due to human activities - greenhouse gases.
7. Model projections for 0.2C per decade
8. By 2100 we are looking at up to 6.4C increase in temperature and a bunch of really serious climate impacts.
etc etc
I’m writing this while listening to Lou Reed sing “Last Great American Whale” which finishes with:
Americans don’t care too much for beauty
they’ll shit in a river, dump battery acid in a stream
They’ll watch dead rats wash up on the beach
and complain if they can’t swimThey say things are done for the majority
don’t believe half of what you see and none of what you hear
It’s like what my painter friend Donald said to me
“Stick a fork in their ass and turn them over, they’re done.”
I hope Lou was wrong but it is pretty bloody serious.
February 4th, 2007 at 8:55 pm
Overall NZ has a lot of work to do to prepare.. cause the first 50 years or so is already locked in and the rest of the century ain’t lookin’ all that good.
We will be the recipients of more extreme rain and wind. Wellingtonians are familiar with what extreme rain and wind means, but may have a bit of difficulty with the concept of “more”
I expect more specifics in the remaining sections… and I caution that the prognostications do not include consideration of extreme shifts like the collapse of WAIS or GIS. (West Antarctic Ice Sheet, Greenland Ice Sheet). Not CONSIDERED doesn’t mean can’t happen, the likelihood is increasing every year… but predictability is limited.
Some of us will live to see some of these things. Most of us are leaving them to our children.
BJ
February 4th, 2007 at 9:30 pm
Your Lou Reed-inspired comment is a little tough on the country that produced Henry Thoreau, Aldo Leopold and Peter Matthiessen, to name but a few. I don’t much like what the Americans are doing as regards climate change either, but China is also very dangerous (the thought of all the coal they are burning to make, in part, cheap junk for the rest of us, makes me shudder), and all countries, to a greater or lesser extent, are contributing to the problem.
http://kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist/
February 4th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
It also produced Lou Reed who, like Thoreau, is not uncritically accepting what was happening in the USA.
Is it the case now that nothing critical can be said, even by an American without also castigating India and China? Lou wasn’t talking about those places cause they aren’t where he lives. As an American he’s owning his part of the problem and not blaming others. A very grown-up thing to do.
BJ
February 5th, 2007 at 11:21 am
Can someone rebut the post on kiwiblog. For some reason. I can never post anything there.
February 5th, 2007 at 6:33 pm
Yeah Luke its a shocker over there.
Those who are only passively interested would typically leave a page with conspiracy rubbish and personal attacks flying. When Sonic is here s/he seems to be treated with a touch more respect…
I had a crack at putting the IPCC report into perspective: I’ve said it here before somewhere too, the whole AGW “debate” detracts from the real impacts of wonky consumption that are all about us.
As Russel said above, the IPCC report contains nothing we dont know…
February 5th, 2007 at 8:59 pm
bjchip Says:
February 4th, 2007 at 10:05 pm
It also produced Lou Reed who, like Thoreau, is not uncritically accepting what was happening in the USA.
Is it the case now that nothing critical can be said, even by an American without also castigating India and China? Lou wasn’t talking about those places cause they aren’t where he lives. As an American he’s owning his part of the problem and not blaming others. A very grown-up thing to do.
BJ
———————————————————————————-
You don’t have anything to prove BJ, but Russel and other “Greens” stand accused of being exessively anti-American (refer obsession with Waihopai “Spy Base” etc). It wouldn’t hurt to can comments like that. There are lots of good people in America and it is from them that we learn about Peak Oil, and many of the visionary ideas of the post carbon age [Wouldn’t happen in one of the societies the pointy heads of the left have envisioned for us].
I wrote this while listening to>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
“GOD BLESS AMERICA!! LAND OF THE FREEEE! (etc)…”
jh
February 5th, 2007 at 11:19 pm
Well heck jh, you’re preaching to the converted. I frankly can’t see why quoting Americans like Uncle Lou, or Michael Moore, or Ralph Nader, should be seen as anti-American.
The point is, the USA is in a unique and crucial position with respect to global warming. It is incredibly energy-fat (compare the GDP per unit of energy in the USA compared to Europe, for example), so there are a lot of easy gains to be made which can, in themselves, make a tangible difference to global warming. Also, they can have a huge influence on China, India and the other booming economies, because of their high degree of interdependence, and bring them “on board” for the next round of climate treaties.
Quite simply, if the USA continues on its current trajectory, then runaway climate change is inevitable (and the chorus of naysayers would be right that NZ’s contribution or example would have no effect). If they turn their policies around, then there’s hope!
I estimate that the movement against global warming has lost about five years due to the current US admin’s anti-science, pro-big-oil, pro-big-business orientation. Whether this turns out to be crucial or not, with respect to a climate tipping point, we can’t possibly know yet, but it’s quite plausible.
February 6th, 2007 at 2:00 am
Thanks for the respect JH… it is returned. Kingfisher had however, a good point… though his analysis is incomplete still
The Chinese have 1.8 Trillion dollars of US debt instruments now, and all of that money is used to prop up an unworkable system of fiat currencies and bankers control over the resources of the world.
They’ll continue to “print” money and encourage borrowing as long as they can, and with the US$ as the reserve currency it has already gone on far longer than is healthy. Bushco and Bernanke and the Fed and Darth Cheney are all in it to their eyeballs, and the manipulations of the market are a matter of record.
Everything is connected though, and China’s rate of growth and new coal plants and all the rest is a result of the fact that growth isn’t “good” for the bankers…. it is their air supply. As soon as it stops so does the free ride. The whole planet has been absorbing US $ excesses… and it’s reaching saturation.
So the Chinese export market is fueled by Chinese savings being used to buy US debt which is redistributed to buy Chinese goods. It is pretty vicious now and nobody knows how to get off.
It isn’t going to end well.
respectfully
BJ
February 6th, 2007 at 6:36 pm
BJ what are your references?.
jh
February 7th, 2007 at 12:07 am
Mostly I take my financial references from the Motley-Fool boards. In particular the Mishedlo board there. It’s a membership board… I think you can read as a guest though.
http://boards.fool.com/Messages.asp?mid=25131503&bid=114903
Not all there agree on anything, but it is a damned good source for news and understanding of the financial sector. The China-US-Debt business has been pretty well covered but it’s like going through the archives here. Lots of chaff to sift to get the wheat.
BJ
February 7th, 2007 at 12:12 am
meanwhile, I’m curious enough to ask Russ if his Lou Reed track comes from the Greenpeace compilation from about, oh, 1989, or am I the only person left with one of those? (and “the last great american whale” was one of my favourite tracks on there, which was a Rainbow Warrior fundy)
Whales are one of the ocean’s indicator species, healthy whales = healthy oceans.
I’m going to shift the mood here by asserting “no whales = too many bloody Japanese whaling ships”, and run a plug for the Sea Shepherd, which has been de-registered in it’s home country (UK), due to Japanese pressure, creating our first new Pirates in some centuries to be saiing from a European base. (I defer to the great quantity of SE Asian pirates for modernity and recent evolution…)
So, for the statisticians out there, anti-american isn’t the only cultural bias to be met on the blog here!
February 7th, 2007 at 1:18 am
I generally try to make sure I refer to the US govt rather than Americans when that’s what I mean. I am very well aware of all the great Americans.
I’ve got Lou Reed’s “New York” album which is just fantastic and has Last Great American Whale on it. That album has lots of politics, more than I’ve come across in his other stuff (tho I am no expert). And yes the quote from Lou does refer to “Americans” rather than the “US Govt”, which is of course what he meant. He was despairing that lots Americans didn’t seem to care about the environment. And I think it is a real problem that in general Americans seem to be poorly informed about climate change.
February 7th, 2007 at 1:17 pm
Russel, JH
As an American I can assure you that there is no need to apply the restriction “about climate change” to the comment that “in general Americans seem to be poorly informed”.
Recollecting that there’s 12% illiteracy… and that they re-elected the Shrub… and that about 30% still think that WMDs were found…
…that’s NOT a description of a country where democracy based on an informed electorate is thriving.
respectfully
BJ
February 7th, 2007 at 7:46 pm
Off-thread somewhat, but I was interested in what Katie said about Sea Shepherd and modern day pirates. It’s a paradox that the west has large and expensive armed forces targeted against other conventional forces, guerillas and terrorists, while small amateur outfits such as Sea Shepherd are left to deal with the real security threats, in this case whaling.
Is it too fanciful to think that in future, sooner rather than later I hope, the US military might use its power to protect the Amazon rainforest from destruction (a real planet-wide security threat), rather than fight a futile battle against drug dealers in Colombia? Come to think of it, this is a role that the NZ navy could also play, albeit on a smaller scale - helping Solomon Islands communities protect their rainforests from Malaysian and Chinese loggers.
http://www.kotare.typepad.com/thestrategist
February 7th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
BJ
Before you go putting the boot into the Yanks about who they re-elected lets not forget we hardly have a reason to smile, we re-elected the most corrupt prime minister in our nations history….and say what you like about Bush, at least his election billboards actually bear some resemblance to the man
P.S..speaking of corrupt, any idea where my money is?..I know I have no chance of getting back the money from Winston but I seem to remember Jennette saying that she was going to pay me back.
February 7th, 2007 at 9:09 pm
yawn … is that the sound of a stuck record?
February 7th, 2007 at 9:58 pm
Poor old big bruv … who, apparently, has has (once again) served as the reluctant Benefactor for the entire country.
Helen hasn’t give him his money back. (I guess he means Election publicity funding here.)
Jeanette has apparently made him empty promises.
Winston seems to be a dead loss…
bb, do you want us to shed a tear for you, or give you a medal?
February 7th, 2007 at 10:02 pm
bb:
I’ve got a better idea!
Why don’t you emigrate to the great US of A?