For instance “electric cars have a limited range”. True but consider Russell’s original post: “One-third of all car rides cover less than two kilometres, and two-thirds are shorter than 5 kilometres.â€?

Ipto facto an eletric car with a range of 10km would satisfy two-thirds of our needs.

Then there is the complaint that electric cars are slow and cumbersome. So were the Model T, the Morris Minor, the beetle and the Mini. That didn’t stop them selling by the millions did it? Or being hot rodded.

“You try towing a boat with one of them and see how far you get” Again, the same complaint can be levelled at the bambina and the mini. That’s one reason why we have Hertz, Avis and Rent-A-Dent.

It wasn’t fancy technology that made Honda more popular than Harley-Davidson. It was the clever advertising slogan “You meet the nicest people on a Honda” Volkswagon succeeded in America with “It’s A Lemon!”. Both companies succeded by combining clever, practical engineering with clever marketing and innovative distribution. And that’s what’s been lacking with electric cars to date. Oh, and they were cheap enough to appeal to the youth market.

Driving a Tesla to the station or even on a commute into town will not make much more sense than using a Ferrari for the same trip. … and I would love to have one… (or the Ferrari), and I know I won’t. I don’t drive for fun anymore… I drive kids to places they need to go, I drive to the store.

No more pocket rockets, no more 100MPH commuting.

(BMW 2002, Mitsubishi Mirage Turbo, Nissan Sentra SE-R)…

Now I drive a small family van.. and it’s crowded.

I really miss playing with my car.

respectfully
BJ

You’re right about the long trips, but I’m guessing most trips will be well within the range of the Tesla. Then put it on charge overnight.

If those cars were available here, I’d buy one tomorrow.

How quickly can they ramp up the volume? I don’t know. However, I don’t think the oil will just shut off with a weeks notice. It may not shut off at all.

The time frames will be interesting….

BTW: I like public transport. I also love cars. I think there is enough happening with the tech to leave one optimistic.

Basically no alternative is doing that well as far as I can see (except the bicycle).

I have often wondered how a system of covered cycle lanes would work…maybe with turning aerophiles to push the wind in a certain direction. [The idea isn’t very advanced at this stage]
jh

Tesla may someday produce cars, and I am hopeful that they do, but Lotus and Lithium-Ion batteries are not solutions for station cars and commuting vehicles in the numbers this country (or any other) is going to need. Not anytime soon. We would have to import the battery packs wholesale. We could build them here eventually, but the Li-Ion drawback for transport use is basically the $20K per battery pack and availability here. The price WILL come down and the tech has fewer drawbacks than other battery tech… but even the Li-Ion in the Tesla packs only the equivalent of 8 liters of petrol and it takes 3 hours to recharge. Long trips will be slow until the rapid charging tech reaches some maturity and gets integrated.

Think has a better model for us thanks

http://www.engadget.com/2007/07/31/think-hoping-to-deliver-web-enabled -electric-car/

- and it uses a Tesla designed battery pack BTW.

However, availability here depends on importing batteries. Until and unless we set up production here. Which, given our market is quite unlikely… and which in a global crunch or the imho more likely inexorable grinding decrease of petrol availability with corresponding increases in price… the demand elsewhere will raise the prices for such things phenomenally.

In Other Words, the Tesla BATTERY pack company (the spin off) would be a fair prospective investment in the mid term. Until the Chinese knock-offs appear anyway.

The point is about the bridge technology. The Tata uses compressed air and manages the commute vehicle niche quite nicely thanks, it can be “filled up” in seconds from any facility that can has room for a compressor and a storage tank, or using the on board compressor, in a couple of hours overnight. The model suits us better. The compressed air tank is likely to remain far cheaper and easier to build than the Li-Ion packs for the next 5-10 years. The investment required is smaller per vehicle.

Without the battery pack to hold it down though, it may have a problem in a high wind.

respectfully
BJ

The Global peak was predicted by the end of the century. The overestimates of reserves from the middle east seem to have been balanced out by underestimates by the Soviets. The much longer time frame has allowed new trends to emerge, thanks to the pill and OPEC, which didn’t even exist when the first “predictions” were made. Really these are probability assessments or scenario models using extant trends as the starting point. The further you push into the future the less reliable they become.

The USA projection was actually about 10% short. Add that to the global projection takes us to 2005, but I think certainty reduces with the square of time (a la the intensity/distance relationship in physics) therefore 2021 is a possible maximum. More recent extimates use more recent trends but are still hampered by some very dodgy oil reserve estimates.

I suspect that most regional cities (and former cities) haven’t grown all that much bigger in the 50 years that the motorcar has dominated urban planning. This “backwardness” may turn out to be a blessing in disguise.

Of course, predicting the future is easier with hindsight. So we are both going to be wrong on some points and kinda right on others.

aladin

I disagree with your time frames. It is possible there will be a gap while the market corrects, but we have no way of knowing, really. Peak Oil keeps getting it wrong, and we’ve got new energy sources and applications coming on stream.

>>Hillarious? I am surprised that as a successful property investor you haven’t done a risk assessment for the specific markets you are in.

I can’t speak for the Auckland market, but I know the Wellington market reasonably well. I agree about centralised property, but for slightly different reasons. It’s partly to do with accessibility. People can use their cars, but *choose* not to, because of congestion, parking fees, etc.

I don’t buy property out in the far flung suburbs (no defensive position). Built-up satellites and central only.

Wellington is a port and the seat of government. It is compact. It is reasonable well served by public transport now (could be ramped up significantly, if necessary). It could get along fine with less cars.

The same couldn’t be said for many regional cities.

The factory across the road, owned by Ngai Tahu, goes a step further and provides a creche. Our factory makes do with changing shifts at 3.30pm so mum and dad can both work and share looking after the kids. 2) & 3) seem to be standard in “wet” or “dirty” factories. It will probably take the shock of peak oil to make it “cost-effective” to get these facilities provided at every workplace.